SPX got to the 931 level and was rejected. We’ll see tomorrow what happens with the market, but this was a step in the right direction. I sold out of my ETF’s before the runup happened and took the worst loss of 4% in EEV. Gains in SA of 8%, GFI came back, DGP made it back to positive, and I added to my SA position, and bought GRS. I also cut my index shorts around 10:45 which wasn’t a generous price and would have been better to have stayed in, but I saw the move and I did what I should have done.

I rolled back into shorts though as the SPX fell over. This is also what I should be doing.

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I’m short with EEV, SDS, SRS, and heavily short via long inverse 2x SPX fund and medium 2x RUT. Made 1.6% in the SPX and 1% in the RUT. I’m avoiding the COMPX/NDX until I get some sell signals there.

I need more proof if this market is going to go down before going up. I wasn’t happy that we closed so close to certain levels. This tells me we are going to move large away from the following levels very soon. Maybe the market saves this move for Thursday?

SPX Levels
921.23
920.26
919.53
918.37

Potential H&S forming on the SPX seems to talked about and obvious right now, but we’ll see.

Dennis Gartman likes my POT short idea and hates the long gold according to his spot on Fast Money today. I may need to rethink it. DGP didn’t do well, but SA held up. GFI didn’t do well either. I’ll drop these fast though tomorrow if they don’t perform and actually take my own trade of shorting POT or buying the double inverse Ag etf = AGA.

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Picked up some SRS as a catch up play. Its lagging other inverse vehicles. Added to EEV. EEV or EFU here could be in for a sizeable bounce.

SPX beautifully fell from the levels mentioned yesterday:
“929.23 – 931.76…that will be the max. Might close there even, hope not. It will create the right shoulder on the SPX.”

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I’m still waiting around for something to happen other than this nonsense. RUT down .50%, SPX up .90%

I kept SDS, EEV, and bought GFI, SA, and DGP.

Doing my best to hold this stuff until Friday where at that point, I’ll know if this trade is shit or shizam.

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These are for Friday, June 28th 2009 for trade execution this Monday.

Long potential:
DTV, LLY, EGO, TTWO, VZ, AMT, RZ, ONTY, AIPC

Short potential:
CAT, COP, POT, NOV, DVN, SPWRA, ACI (after a small up move), NKE (after the smallest up move), FSLR

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I was short NDX, SPX, and RUT. I have rotated the NDX portion into the SPX. I’m short SPX, RUT, and long EEV.

Charting facts according to StockRake:
The NDX/COMPX is leading right and shows little sign of a turn down. SPX, RUT, and DOW are highly likely to selloff from here due to my indicators signaling so.

Two Scenarios based on these facts:

1. Due to the COMPX leading. SPX, RUT, and Dow being the laggards will play catch up and negate any negative sell signals and go higher.

2. The SPX, Dow, and RUT are telling the truth and the Nasdaq is in for a fast 1-4 week selloff that will catch bulls jiggling their nuts.

I’m positioned for scenario 2 because I see more negative than positive right here. I executed my trades a few days too early this past week. As most readers know, I like to execute on Friday.

Potential long and short swing trades coming up next…

• Comments

• Sold some of my $FAZ #
• So the $SPX is resting on its 50dema. $COMPX 50dema is 1739 – roughly 40 pts away. What to do now suckas? #
• Reallocated some $SPX shorts to $NDX shorts..now balanced short $RUT, $SPX, $NDX #
• Bought more $FAZ, $SRS, $SDS, $TZA…trade is not for today, but what will come beyond today. Today will be boring, go paint something. #
• $COMPX and $NDX have considerable room to its 50dema. $SPX and $RUT landed there yesterday. More lube on the $NDX, $COMPX pole please… #
• "This is going better than planned Fake Mr. T." I pity the fool who doubts your plan. – Fake Mr. T on the stock market. $$ #
• Scary spike downs in $FAZ and $SRS if you're the type that gets scared. I'm not. #
• Bullish island reversal in $GLD today. #
• I want to see how $SPX handles the 906.83 area. bounce or flop. The chart decides. #
• Added $SRS, $SDS, stop out at $SPX 912 #
• Daily $SPX candlestick = "The candle of despair" #
• and if 893.06 gets taken out on $SPX..ie close below it….buckle the F up. #
• added a little more $FAZ @ 5.14 #
• This is the spot where the $SPX makes it or breaks it. #
• at 912…starting to cover shorts. #
• SPX will probably see 921 now on intraday basis or beyond… #
• Beyond 921 there is nothing in the way till 940…921 should contain it though…911.71 was a big spot though. #
• 921.23, 919.53, 918.37…too many levels…$SPX struggles here. #
• Below $910 and its back on. #
• The first concert I ever went to was The Jackson's Victory Tour in Jacksonville and then a week later in Miami…..I can still moonwalk. #
• About to do some $MCD real life research and get a McAngus burger. #

• Comments

I’ve been posting now for days about the levels of importance on the SPX. My bias has been wrong, but the levels are what matters. I covered my shorts at the 912 spot because it was slightly above the 911.71 which is a true level of importance. What happened at 911.71? We broke out and the market didn’t look back. Where did the SPX finish? 920.26. So overall that is pretty good analysis for a day to day basis. The problem for me is that my trade is locked in over at good ole’ Rydex till the end of the day. So I had to eat a nice loss over there. I wonder why I bother with them? Fees shmees when you can lose 10g’s in a day what’s the point?

Anyways I held my shorts over there, because I think we are setting up for a weekly sell signal. Now let me repeat this. I am jumping my own signals. Its wrong. Its not right to do. You should always wait till you have something before you have it. However, I’m trapped at this point. I’m looking for a little or a lot of down movement tomorrow to help the charts. It doesn’t look good for me I’m aware. If it doesn’t go my way tomorrow I’ll be covering.

I did cover my TZA, FAZ, SRS, and SDS at that 912 spot. Some things like FAZ and SRS had profits (not much) while SDS and TZA both had losses due to my horrible buy points in TZA. SDS wasn’t so bad at around 3% loss while TZA was 5-6% Leaning towards 6% by the time the trade executed.

Laptop is back up and running, barely.

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I see the futures fairies have struck in the aftermarket. Sprinkling fairy dust all over futures traders keyboards.
Despite this move of happiness, my levels are still holding. I expected a slight up move tomorrow to test into the wick formed today on the SP. However, I don’t anticipate a break of the 910-911 region, and I’m hoping not the 906.83 area either. If you watched these levels today you can see where the acceleration to the downside occurred and where the resistance above was. Even with the futs up right now they still put the SPX below 906.83—for now and for now that is positive.

I’m heavily short and stand to make a nice hit if the market moves down. Don’t let my short term bias sway your intelligent decisions.

• Comments

I just hope by posting this alone it stops the market. However, these two levels of 910.71 and 911.97 plus the 906.83 tells me, that the upside will be capped in this area. In fact, its now more likely that a touch or kiss has happened and the market has the ability to sell off now since oversold has been relieved.

It really looks like scenario 1 is on the table from last night’s post. I left off the other bit that the market can selloff from that point.

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I am somewhat concerned being short for tomorrow. I actually am doing something that I learned not to do over the years, which is have a directional bias on Fed Day. They can be unpredictable and cause emotional fake out swings that will ultimately force a cover if you are short or long and then the market reverses back to your original thesis.

So what I’m looking at is, the larger trend is really turning down here, but its still early, so early equals trend up until its officially down. However, there are enough signs that I’m jumping in early.

SPX closed above my 893 level, which to me suggests one of three things.
1. We are going higher and going to hit 906 first then possibly, 910-911.
2. We will have another snapdown below 895 tomorrow that is vicious.
3. We will blow past 906 and goto 921 area.

With these scenarios, I didn’t lower my risk and remained heavily short. I’m thinking beyond tomorrow with this trade, but it still was NOT a smart move. I was too nonchalant about it.

My cue, will come from that 893 level for lower action, and above 906 that will make me rethink some of my short positions.

I bought FAZ, SRS, TZA, and SDS this morning.

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I’ve been saying a break of 819.53 will result in a test of 893.06. SPX settled at 893.04 today. So that is below the next level. This tells me there will be a test into the 870s.

This is where we are going –> (877.52, 872.81), 865.3, (858.73, 852.06), 841.5 **(cluster), outlier

Clusters usually get broken either up or down, and after that break the next cluster is usually tested or the outlier gets hit on extreme volatility/movement/intraday wildness.

Other than this, from what I can see the potential for the market trend to reverse here is high.

I’m long FAZ. I did sell some for a 6% gain, but I will look to buy it back tomorrow. I was net short in the index funds, then rolled over that long hedge to the short side. Then at the close I rebalanced equally NDX, RUT, SPX. I twittered all this during the day for those that care. I am now heavily short for the ride to 870’s SPX and will look to add to that with my small accounts tomorrow.

I did sell all my UNG today for 5-7% loss. Very annoying – I bought wrong.

Two of my favorite shorts over the weekend that I found were CEC and BBY. I didn’t take a position in either.

• Comments

The UNG is very oversold right now on an intraday basis, but I’m stopping myself out.

Bought FAZ. I’m netshort the $SPX, removed the hedges on it, so more short. Below 919.53 I’m bearish into the 890s.

• Comments

• Really liked QT's tape talk swing trade setups check it out @tickerville http://bit.ly/12xato #
• The last time $INTC made such interesting commercials as this one: http://bit.ly/4iNCz we were in a bull market….I'm just saying. #
• $ALKS nice continuation today. Get to R2 $ALKS. #
• Dumping utility stocks…way too boring for my liking. $$ #
• Added to $UNG swinging it. #
• Went short into the close $SPX, $NDX, $RUT #
• Below 919.53 on $SPX is vroom vroom party starter time. #
• bot some $faz and $srs with $SPX flirting with breakdown point…$sds though is the better trade. #
• If $SPX doesn't get below 919.53 at close I'm covering my shorts. #
• hedged shorts, but still net short. $$ #
• Held $UNG #

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Yesterday’s plan worked out great yesterday. Short into the morning and then look to reverse knowing the market would reach an oversold level. Then go long if and when the SPX reached those lower levels posted. I didn’t post this plan here ahead of time, but I did talk about it yesterday at the close with trading friends and today the market acted exactly in that manner. Its a satisfying feeling when things go right.

So I was heavily short and flipped this morning long (selling the SDS, and going long SPX) netting gains on the short end and then on the reversal.

So where is SPX now and what is it going to do next? Sort of in limbo here. Likely higher tomorrow though, then lower on Friday.

I bought UNG today. I really like UNG here and talked about getting interested in UNG days ago. I sold my utility position in AEE and XLU. No technical reason they remain on buys, but they suck at movement.

Index money is in cash, waiting for the markets to make their next move.

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