http://www.stockrake.com

I understand why some people might not understand my techniques. I don’t share them in detail. You only get to watch.

How does one go from being bearish on February 23rd, explaining my reasons on Feb 25th why I am turning bullish, to being bullish on Feb 26th and buying things for the following week?

First you need to have a “system”, trading plan, whatever that tells you what you should be doing.

Second, you need to know that it is good. Backtest, forward test, whatever. Make sure its robust.

Third, follow it. Most important step.
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I’ve said it before, “you have to be dumb to make money.” Be dumb, follow a plan, don’t over think it. The yokles on those bear blogs have been bearish for literally the entire move up from 1 year ago today. Be dumb.

If you have a signal, a reason to play a stock, whether its a chart (its always a chart for me), or a fundamental reason, just do it.

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I cut back my longs purchased at the close Feb 26th from being 75% long 2x NDX and 2x SPX to 30% long 2x SPX, on Mar 5th. Everything is long and everything is up. So why am I cutting back? Its a management thing as the market is a little overbought on all indexes. Certain stocks are not. Certain stocks are. Lots of weekly breakouts setting up, so I want to be a buyer as the market comes in.

Why not get out and just get back in? I used to do this, and sometimes it would be too difficult to make that decision. So I leave a small amount in the trade in case I’m wrong and maintain an attachment to what I should be doing.

Based on the dumb principles, I bought RIMM – not in a large way. The calls that were purchased on Friday were sold for 150%/173% gains (not including commissions). I bought more calls, but the April’s this morning. Sold a half for 57%.

The same dumb principles got me into DIS, as well as other stocks. Including ICO, which dumped on me this morning due to a secondary offering. I lost 7%, yet its still on a buy. I’m not being dumb on my exit. I don’t have a reason to get out of ICO other than fear of losing more than 7%.

I’ve included a menagerie of screen shots to piece together my thoughts, the trade, and maybe you get an understanding. If not, you can ask questions, and I may or may not answer.

Current positions:
-30% long 2x SPX (looking for a market pullback to get more long, will include NDX, RUT)
-bot C April 4 calls
-DIS calls (trimmed down even more of that position today for 144% gain. The last bit I’m letting run.
-bot DSX, EGLE
-rolled my IBM calls to further out strike and went even smaller on the trade.
-bot INSM, PXLW
-still have that small piece of RIMM calls (will look to buy back, with a pullback tomorrow as the trend is still CLEARLY up) Be dumb, don’t be an idiot.
-bot USO calls (I sold them due to fear midday that my profits were deteriorating, got back on the dumb train, because the charts say so)
-ERX still holding in other accounts. Would like to buy this one back for my main account also.

I also want to be a buyer of gold again as I sold out of my gold positions last Friday.

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