Jobs came in worse than expected. Stay tuned.

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Bought TZA @ 73.58ish.

Like the title says going short indexes again. Most of my levels I was waiting for traded above and broke below. These need to close this way though and the day isn’t over.

851.81 spx
456/451 rut also close below 448 would be wonderful
1151.96 NDX
8451 DOW???
1472.02 compx
1482.05 compx

16.55 UWM

Random thought? Automakers won’t get bailout…Market initially reacts badly, then realizes later its good and we get a rally?

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The market decided to slap bears around today and I got caught on the wrong side - 6% hit. I also took my losses in all the ETFs I mentioned earlier today about 6% as well there. I made 7.6% on TNA early this morning.
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Levels I’m looking for tomorrow.
A trade of SPX above 873.29 and then a close below it.
A trade of RUT above 456.52 and then a close below it.
A close of less than 8835.25 and one of the above happens.
The NDX is likely going to 1179.63 beyond that its about 100pts higher. However, a close below 1165.38 would be nice for a short.

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The trend of the market is still down. Obviously right? I know where the trend is, I would venture to say 80%+ of the time I know where it is. My patience is an issue though and still gets me in trouble. If I don’t trade the trend early and get on it early, I tend to let it go and then day trade inside that trend which can be much more difficult to do. Use QCOR as the example a stock I’ve mentioned and owned in the 5’s traded it up into the 7’s. QCOR has broken out into the 9s now without a trend change and I’ve known that. Yet I didn’t hold onto it. Arguably looking at the chart below there is enough noise to throw one off the trade if you were following this. Its something I have to work on. Its the hard trade and I have to stay with it. The COMPX chart is another example. GOOG yet again. You want to see more?

QCOR trend:

The trend:

GOOG trend:

There was a part of October where I got caught on the wrong side of the trend..ie holding long, due to an oversold signal that in the past was HIGHLY reliable. Unfortunately the market turned into the worst market seen in 60 something years and blew through a very oversold level. Not only that, but the move down in October was tremendous. What I’ve learned to do now is either hedge my trend position when the market becomes overbought/oversold or cut my position drastically. I’ve also derived a new way of looking at price pivots based somewhat on the oversold/overbought that appear to have reliable effects.

Leave your favorite symbol in the comments or email me and I’d like to check it in my chart w/ settings to see if they show the same story you are expecting.

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I’ll revisit shorting tomorrow after the market has moved to higher levels. Not interested in hanging on through more upside.

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Looks like RUT might test 451.3 or 456.52.

I’m short the indexes, and bought short ETFs this morning too including: QID, REW, SZK, and SMN.

Then picked up some TNA as a, yawn, hedge that I will dump at those levels if reached.

Market typically doesn’t bottom on a Wednesday (from Art Cashin) and I think today will close closer to flat rather than up or down.

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Here is a chart I posted on September 10th. Did I know RIMM was going to go down? Yes. Did I personally benefit from what I derived from the technical picture? No. Did you?

RIMM’s massive monthly support appears to be 34.21. There might be a bounce there. If there is no bounce on RIMM at this level, then the next monthly level is 27.31 and 24.62.

I’m heavily short today, minus owning short etfs, but I may pick some up.

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I have feelings and they are tingling and they are telling me to be short for tomorrow. I’m taking a heavy position. Hopefully that tingling is not my toes from sitting in the same position too long.

Today the market almost went flat, but it was very VERY important that the market closed up and closed up as much as its doing right now - Dow 200. If the market had closed flat or down, then we might be going higher. That scenario is off the table - we are going lower.

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I mentioned over the weekend that I thought maybe we could break the overhead trendline and move higher then later in the week test it to the downside. That was wrong. However, I did provide the levels to look for to make a trade.

The market moved fast right out of the gate this morning. I was quick to cut my losses and mentioned in the comments section that we have broken some important levels (around 10 am) which should take us down, but I didn’t believe it at the time. I want to tell you that I don’t use typical retracement levels to come to these numbers. They come from my custom indicators and they have nothing to do with typical support and resistance or pivots.

So at 10am I said that 1087.6 was the next level for the NDX, but that seems too far down. The NDX closed @ 1091.16. 1085.6 is an important price point as well. So now I want to see a dip below those numbers tomorrow morning and a close or a morning move that goes higher than those price levels to go long.

406.54 is the number to watch on the RUT. The RUT was DOWN ROUGHLY 12% today!!!
1386.42 and 1384.35 are the levels for the COMPX.
806.58 and 800.03 are the levels for the SPX.

I bought SRS and TZA around 2pm after seeing a breakout setup in both. I sold both of those for gains today and did not hold till tomorrow.

Many online stock bloggers and the tech analyst on Fast Money are now looking for even more downside. 600 SPX was the call on Fast Money, a price level that Lousie Yamada projected a few weeks ago. I’m only considering shorting once any level is taken out to the downside. Today’s absolute price destruction did not give me confidence to go long at the close like I mentioned very early in the morning.

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Market indexes have broken through some major support lines and I want to see what happens at the close.

I want to be a long buyer only at the close and only if we finish in the red. Any comeback rally day, I will short.

I may go short at these already egregious levels today though as the indexes have broken important levels and the next zones of support are much lower.

I stopped out of SOLF and MTL with losses of around 12% and 14%. Blech.

Will today be a Black Monday or a Black Monday fake out?

*SPX is @ that 851.81 level I mentioned yesterday.

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SPX is right around some major inflection point, but both the RUT, and the COMPX have considerable upside room which makes me think we are going to see the SPX break this trendline to the upside.

After the break I think it will selloff to test the line causing a break even for the week in terms of performance. This would be a victory for the bulls if this played out. It could also end up being a high consolidation around last Friday’s close by this coming Friday. Again, my guess based on these levels:

Low Intraday SPX Levels
910.96
924.19
High Intraday SPX Levels
964.36
969.15
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Daily Low SPX levels
898.95
919.21
Daily High SPX Levels
984.94
996.23

If a break of recent lows happens on the SPX then look to these levels for support and direction to where the market will selloff to.
851.81
806.53
800.03
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Just for the heck of it here are the levels for the NDX
Daily NDX from High to Low
1297.57
1240.93
1169.78
1165.38

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In SOLF @ 5.54

I’m looking and hoping for a close over 5.81

Normally I’d expect SOLF to close @ the highs of the day based on a paintbar pattern I have, chart included in a minute, and if it doesn’t close on the highs it typically will trade higher the next few days.

As I typed this, SOLF started moving…chart coming in a bit.

A close over 5.81 and 5.69 is important for continuation of this upmove, otherwise it might just be a daytrade.

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I don’t know if it was foolish or not, but I kicked myself out of TBSI on the opening bar drop. Took my loss and walked even though 2minutes later TBSI bounced about .40 cents higher.

I bought MTL @ 6.04. I bought it in an overbought state, and it was a much better buy at 5.95. MTL is curiously strong today like Altoids. So I want to watch other steel stocks and see if anything moves with it.

Placed a 4% stop on SOL which will kick me out with a 4% gain if it sells off today. APWR also has that stop on. I’m interested in SOLF and JASO today playing catch up and that they are China related. I mentioned earlier this week that China (FXI) has a possible shot at some upside from here based on the charts of course.

I want to buy weakness at the close.

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The gains in the NDX (9%ish) and the RUT (11.4%ish) were outstanding. My only mistake was not adding back the money I took off the table after Monday’s run. Alas the gains have been good.
I have sold my index longs as a precaution at the close. I want to buy back on weakness or profit taking if it unfolds on Friday. Either way I’m pretty sure I want to get long for December barring a monsterous drop on Friday.

Yesterday’s buys of APWR, YGE, and SOL were outstanding. I commented on previous posts about my complete sell out of YGE. Shortly after I got out YGE went red on the day. It has nothing to do with me and everything to do with my sell signals.

APWR I posted that I sold half and put in a stop on it. I changed the stop to a trailing stop of 8%.
Up 18% and I cut it 50%.

SOL I also kept my full position on and I can’t remember the stop I put on it. Up 8% with the AH push.

TBSI I bought late in the day and I actually bought it poorly when it was overbought. I could have waited another 5 minute bar and got it a few % lower. I’m up 4.2% on the intraday trade and held in full.

Many stocks on my undervalued list went apeshit today.

There is a multi pronged chart turn going on between the US dollar, Emerging markets, and commodities right here. FXI (China looks good), EWZ (Brazil) looks good, and UYM (maybe).

Semiconductors are setting up for a possible multi-week bear market rally here imo. USD is the easy double etf play on that sector.

I’m exhausted, so I won’t get into price levels I’m looking for and I’ll just say Happy Thanksgiving and cya Friday.

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Topside levels
RUT 452
SPX 898
COMPX 1499

I’m also looking at UYG and the 6.05 level.

I get worried if we take out today’s open tomorrow on the indexes that closed positive.

I bought SOL, YGE, and APWR today near the end of the day. They have room a bit up before hitting major resistance (on these 3 symbols), but if the same characteristics show on these 3 symbols they are most likely showing up in other stocks in the sector. My trade in these names are only for the very short term.

Forgot to mention some of the trades today.
The mix of RUT and NDX actually made a small gain, but mostly they offset each other today.
LVS made a little bit on of 1.5%.
TZA made a small gain as well of 1%.
I also sold SSO and QLD this morning near the open.

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YGE @ 3.99
APWR @ 3.94

Alternative energy hot potato.

5 minute charts showing that same pop potential LVS exhibited earlier this morning and then did again later in the day. LVS is consolidating nicely actually. Wish I didn’t get stopped out.

It looks like JRCC could bounce more than today as well fwiw.

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