I’m Heavily Long As Of Today’s Close

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October 4, 2008

I bought the market today heavily. I bought UWM, QLD, and QLD October 49 calls (bought them early and I bought the strike I didn’t want). I bought the calls in a frenzy lining up other trades and realized I got the strike I didn’t want, but I’m sure its going to be fine because if we get the move I think is coming, these bad boys will be up huge.

The second thing I did was buy the index long funds – heavy. I’m long the NDX, RUT, and SPX. The usual suspects.

I posted a few days ago a list of double leveraged long etfs in case you are into that sort of thing.

Ok, so everyone is going to be talking about the bailout plan and how the market sold the news in a puking like manner that led to people just giving up on the market. The worst week in 7 years they say. I say good. Now that the media and the regular investor will mire all weekend about their accounts wondering when is the pain going to end. You wanna know when the market has likely hit an emotional bottom? When you hear people talking about it at a restaurant at the table next to you. When your neighbor starts noticing how crazy this market has been. When the avg investor (nobody who reads this blog) opens their monthly statement and has a conniption.

Do you think the Fed, Paulson, GWB, the House, the Senate, and the media, who worked their arses off, trying to get this bullshit bill passed are going to let these markets drop? Both Tim Seymore and Joe “Mr. RIMM” Terranova, mentioned that they “think” a coordinated rate cut is likely considering that what we’ve seen for the last several months is a coordinated global recession.

Does the econ data look bad? It looks horrible. However, the market looks forward and there are times where the price action catches up to that pricing. We may be there now or it may be temporary. I think the negative news flow has lost some luster, with the exit of FNM, FRE, AIG, WB, MER, LEH, WM, IndyMac, and of course BSC. The bad paper players are mostly gone from the market. We don’t know who is left, but there aren’t many big targets on our side of the pond left to shoot. When the big targets are not in reach they will go after the little players, but those little guys can’t hold a market back.

I’ll save a list of oversold plays for another post.




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  • david

    Thanks, again, great insight. I'm going to ask a beginner question if you don't mine. Why do you trade so many leveraged ETFs? Aren't there better money making vehicles out there? What is it you like about buying indexes instead of particular stocks?

  • http://www.stockrake.com StockRake

    I've building systems related to trading the big 4 indexes for 8 years. Its just something I started doing and am most familiar with. Leveraged ETF's can provide huge gains.

    As an example:
    QID is up 29.83% for the month of September plus an additional 15% in the month of October as well. Who can not be happy a 40% gain trading an etf?

    SMN – How does 70% gain in two months grab ya?
    I didn't have Discus comments setup at the time, but I was in SMN on Sept 8th.
    http://www.stockrake.com/piled-onto-the-friday-…

    I can sniff out the good ones, patience is my weakpoint.

    There are many other leveraged ETFs that have had amazing gains in these two months: FXP, EFU, EEV, UUP, DRR( in the last 10 days).

    I do like individual stocks, but the advantage leveraged etf's have is that news events don't screw things up as much as say if Steve Jobs came out and said they might release a computer pen and AAPL pops 5%, while you were short.

  • http://www.zentrader.ca Jeff

    While I do agree that we are oversold, I'm not so sure I could muster the courage to be heavy long or short given the uncertainty surronding these markets. I feel the primary trend is down and I'll be looking to enter some shorts on the next rally. I wish you the best come Monday morning.

  • http://www.stockrake.com StockRake

    No question the primary trend is down. Its been down, essentially, since January. I will also short the rally as well. Thanks for the luck!

    I'm most likely holding this trade till Friday's close and will reevaluate then. Monday could be a huge intraday reversal to kick off the up week I anticipate. If this week is not up more than say 60 pts in the compx, I'll hold another week long and after that, start shorting any upside for the last and likely final drop before a new bull run starts. By the time the last leg down is over we will probably be into December and then we'll usher in a rally starting in very early 2009.

  • http://www.stockrake.com StockRake

    No question the primary trend is down. Its been down, essentially, since January. I will also short the rally as well. Thanks for the luck!

    I'm most likely holding this trade till Friday's close and will reevaluate then. Monday could be a huge intraday reversal to kick off the up week I anticipate. If this week is not up more than say 60 pts in the compx, I'll hold another week long and after that, start shorting any upside for the last and likely final drop before a new bull run starts. By the time the last leg down is over we will probably be into December and then we'll usher in a rally starting in very early 2009.