Is Today Worse Than When We Hit The Lows?

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October 15, 2008

It sure sounds like it when you read the comments from this post. Its a sign that sentiment is worse. I posted earlier today that “Today’s Market Action Will Cause A Level of Apathy Not Seen Since The Great Flood” @ 12:24 pm. The COMPX was trading @ 1716 and ended @ 1633. There is no doubt that people are giving up. As you can see in that post its starting and if this blog was more popular there would probably be more examples of the apathy in the comments section. The indicators definitely trapped me in the long trade that I’m in, but I have been able to profit with the small money in between which happens to be a slight positive. Today was a loss in UYG as are the buys in DRYS, CSIQ, and QLD which I still hold in only 1 account.

Ok now I’m going to post some charts about a indicator reaching a level only seen 4 times since 1973. Some may say this is not enough of a sample set to be reliable, but I’m taking my chances due to the time span of which this signal occurred over.

The key here is that the upside action eclipsed the close on the day the signal occurred. Essentially I will be looking for the same pattern to repeat and to exit my long at that moment and will look to profit even more with the smaller $ in the trading accounts.

Now what this also tells me is that we will probably close out the week on the lows rather than higher which is what lesser indicators were saying before a crash happened. However, this indicator is essentially the final line in the sand that is reliable for a bounce. I’d expect a decent to large percentage move on a week over week basis after this Friday and is the reason why I won’t panic if we get two days of craziness going into Friday. All of this above is in relation to my index fund position, for the trading accounts, they are mostly in cash, but I will look to buy some of those big dividend growth stocks on the next two days of buying opportunities.




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  • http://www.zentrader.ca Jeff

    One of my scenerios is just as you stated above. Retest, meaningful rally….of course the other has us going into the abyss. Are you still holding any long etf's?

  • http://www.stockrake.com StockRake

    Yep, I got trapped in my 10-3-08 long in double beta index funds for NDX, SPX, and RUT. Mostly in NDX though there.

    Bought QLD yesterday @ 40.88 the move has been brutal since yesterday!

    Bought DRYS yesterday @ 23.37

    Bought CSIQ yesterday @ 14.43

    All of these are hurting, but its a two day event, so the amplitudes are obviously large, but could come back equally the same. To be down this much in a day and half is really a sign of how bad the volatility is right now, but the market can't sustain this kind of selling. I can't remember all the statistics, but 10 out of 11 days down, 28th day in a row triple digit moves, vix, vxn, new lows, $ of stocks at 52 week lows, etc..

  • http://www.zentrader.ca Jeff

    One of my scenerios is just as you stated above. Retest, meaningful rally….of course the other has us going into the abyss. Are you still holding any long etf's?

  • http://www.stockrake.com StockRake

    Yep, I got trapped in my 10-3-08 long in double beta index funds for NDX, SPX, and RUT. Mostly in NDX though there.

    Bought QLD yesterday @ 40.88 the move has been brutal since yesterday!

    Bought DRYS yesterday @ 23.37

    Bought CSIQ yesterday @ 14.43

    All of these are hurting, but its a two day event, so the amplitudes are obviously large, but could come back equally the same. To be down this much in a day and half is really a sign of how bad the volatility is right now, but the market can't sustain this kind of selling. I can't remember all the statistics, but 10 out of 11 days down, 28th day in a row triple digit moves, vix, vxn, new lows, $ of stocks at 52 week lows, etc..

    Will I be shocked if “the market” makes an example out of the oversold dip buyers? No. That scenario would give the most people the most to think about over a long weekend.