I would think that with a near 200+ open and then selling off -60 from the levels we are at right now the VIX would at least be green. I want to get long today eod, if we get another selloff today. Hopefully, this will be a massive squeeze starting either next week or the week after.

Made 1 intraday trade in TZA again. In @ 143.41, Out @ 145.17. Better than nothing — almost.

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I’ve only been short for 3 days and those were a good 3 days to be short. Took my 13.4% in the SPX today. Unfortunately I got fooled out of my SDS and TZA buys this morning like a piker. It unfortunate because it would have been a huge day for those trades.

Luckily I have no control over trades at Rydex funds till 3:55 pm :D.

Be on the lookout for an intraday reversal tomorrow or a pop and drop type day. Things can’t stay this “frickn” directional forever. Macke said, what I’ve been saying for weeks, “The Shorts have had it waaay too easy.”

So you know the drill we took out the 10 year lows today on pretty much everything. The 2002 lows are dangling right there for the taking on some indexes while others broke em today. Another day like this and the Dow will test its 2002 low. The RUT has significanly more room to the downside to test its 2002 lows. SPX broke its 2002 lows. NDX has about 200 points more down and roughly the same for the COMPX.

I want to be a buyer at the end of the day tomorrow as I think there is a setup for next week.

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The RUT is now trading with a 3 handle!

Today is the flush most people have been waiting for.

Watch the volatility indexes, and see if anybody cries on CNBC. If nobody freaks out on TV, then this unfortunately is not overwith.

Then tomorrow maybe…maybe we have an intraday reversal. Maybe we even have a rally right out of the gate. Maybe it just gets worse. Nobody knows yet, today I’m not seeing enough downside yet. 750 SPX maybe?

I bought SDS and TZA near the open around the time when the market tried to do a little pump upwards.

SDS @ 116

TZA @ 122

and long Inverse SPX funds.

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I was lightly long going into this morning where I flipped that position and added to it at the close. I’m short the SPX only. I’m looking for a nasty day tomorrow where maybe we see an intraday reversal. Maybe not. I sold TZA waaaay to early but still managed 7%. I actually had TZA down at 90, but stopped myself out on panic early in the day.

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Me too. I swapped my lite short to lite long eod.

I’ll look to go short tomorrow morning.

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Bought TZA @ 90.45.

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I’ve sold any long I’ve owned throughout this turmoil. I’ve capitulated. I’ve taken my losses and picked up my ass and did the right thing. I went smallish to the short side. I’m looking for a low to be put in this week. The monthly charts are very oversold, BUT this month has to end down for them to close the month out oversold. This is HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY likely to setup a major bottom when this month is over or the next one (December).

I did manage to make some cash on the long side today using TNA. I didn’t go into TZA which is the bearish 3x RUT ETF.

I hate that the volatility indexes are ratcheting upwards. VIX seems poised to breakout - if you can believe this.

BTW COMPX to hit that lower line in the chart above is 182 pts lower. The breakdown today suggest we are going there.

MACD turned down today on the COMPX daily chart, SPX, and RUT.

Update: The only thing I can see that matches the current market in the charts is the end of the 1974 bear market.

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The pressure is building under the foot of a weekly divergence in the SPX, RUT, NDX, COMPX and the other sectors that have been smashed, namely commodities, financials, and real estate.

A relief rally typically happens when this setup is showing its face. We had a rally off the 3rd week of October low based on this pattern. This time I think we will crack up to those levels I’ve been patiently waiting for.

The rest of the beaten downs:

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Selling the US dollar here via UDN. A double inverse dollar etf.

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Buying TNA, CF, APC, (ultra small spec in LVS), SSO + holding SSO from days ago.

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Direxion funds has thrown their hat into the leveraged ETF arena.

They have released the following 3x leveraged ETFs. If you don’t know how these work in a nutshell you take a current Index price and in this case, triple the performance of that day whether its a gain or loss that day. ie If the Russell 2000 is up 2% on a given day you would earn 6% if you owned TNA that day.

Bullish
ERX - Energy Bull 3X - 3x the Russell 1000 Energy index.
FAS - Financial Bull 3X - 3x the Russell 1000 Financial Index.
BGU - Large Cap Bull 3X - 3x the Russell 1000 Index.
TNA - Small Cap Bull 3X - 3x the Russell 2000 Index.

Bearish
ERY - Energy Bear 3X - 3x inverse the Russell 1000 Energy index.
FAZ - Financial Bear 3X - 3x inverse the Russell 1000 Financial Index.
BGZ - Large Cap Bear 3x - 3x inverse the Russell 1000 index.
TZA - Small Cap Bear 3X - 3x inverse the Russell 2000 index.

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Buy these:
EEB, EEM, SLX, EWZ, UWM, MVV, UYM, SSO, qld

and then anything on here:
http://www.stockrake.com/a-list-of-stocks-based-on-valuation-models-that-are-cheap~2008~10.html

Why I sold my TNA today? I’m a moron. However, I’ll be back into TNA for sure.

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I’ve been waiting and waiting and its here.

I will rub my hands together in a very mysterious way now.

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My precious precious rally.

I’ve been calling for it since the 10-10-08 lows.

To recap these are the numbers I’m looking for.

COMPX: 1894.39
This is the open on the weekly bar for 10-10-08.

SPX: 1097.56
This is the open on the weekly bar for 10-10-08.

RUT: 617.51
This is the open on the weekly bar for 10-10-08.

I got into this trade 1 week too early, but I will exit my index longs at those levels or close to it. Its getting tough though I’ll tell ya. One of the hardest trades I’ve ever sat through. Mistakes were definitely made along the way, but I’ll get out of the hole.

Global governments need to reflate the economy and it appears that is happening in a concerted effort.

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Here are two more reasons, why my shit is great, but I suck.

TWM Long:

YGE Short:

If you missed the orientation post, Green means long, Red means short.

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