Its All About How You Sell

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January 22, 2009

Yesterday I was doing great, if I close out at the close. Today I start out in the hole. Then as I see things ticking buy signals I’m in and catch the whole rally up. The problem is that the rally doesn’t stick and I didn’t sell everything. I did sell some though. My GS, FAS, and covered SRS. However, I let LVS linger a bit too long, but still closed profitable, as well as C. My problems today revolve around the choppy tape. I was in and out of trades churning. Today had to be one of the hardest days to trade that I’ve seen – at least for my timeframes. If you are a 1 and 3 min trader today might have been amazing movement, but for anything larger than that the range was too small and moved way too fast.

Overall lost 6% in the RUT, 3% in the NDX, and 3% in the SPX. The day trades overall were a loss. If I sold on the rally highs I would have had a huge gain gotten out of the hole from the overnight debacle that was GNK/TBSI.

One stock I’m holding is SOL and I remained long indexes and not comfortable about it. I may sell tomorrow morning.

The one positive is that the VIX is trending down if you look at the MACD after a brief move upwards. MACD histogram crossovers through the 0 line with the VIX I find to be very reliable for market direction. I missed the last one that turned up. This final drop in price coupled with the weak move up in the VIX may be the end of it when it ends.

vixmacd