I’ve Been Here For Years

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January 28, 2010

Don’t call it a comeback, I’ve been here for years.

First of all the futures yesterday totally just dissipated into nothing yesterday.

Despite the crappiness of my telecom predictions and improper position sizing and risk management I started out with a healthy loss this morning due to MOT laying an egg.

In one of the harder days I’ve participated in awhile, I managed to minimize the loss significantly.

Here is what I did.

I’m not happy about today at all, but it shows if your expectations get broken start rolling with the flow. I did this with SSG, TZA, TWM, and SRS after seeing the loss I was already under. Most people give up the day right there. Sometimes its probably best to give up on the day, but in this case it was better not to.

The scenario I’m hoping to happen is a rally tomorrow to relieve the oversold conditions that I’m seeing on nearly everything. However, what is likely to happen is we close the week out on the lows. Creating a normally stellar oversold condition to go long while everyone is following the Precther’s of the world off the cliff. The market is going to make it tough like they always do.

The same technical reasons I got long MOT, VZ, and T are still there. They did not relieve their conditions. However, things like GOOG seem a better risk/reward setup (if we sell off tomorrow). The emerging market complex is also showing similar oversold buy ops. The whole commodities and energy sectors are loaded with potential poppers.

GDX, EWZ (I’m long), XLE, XLB, EGO, PCU (big volume today), KLAC, IAG, MOS, etc.
I don’t use the McClellan Osc, but this chart was posted by TraderFlorida

My current positions include the severely reduced index long positions where I will have a decision to make on them tomorrow at the close. EWZ Feb calls looking for a pop soon as in ASAP. Long RGR and VLO March calls. I still have the C position, but let me show you what I was supposed to do with C. I bought right, held wrong, and never sold. I disobeyed my signals on this trade.