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The market decided to slap bears around today and I got caught on the wrong side – 6% hit. I also took my losses in all the ETFs I mentioned earlier today about 6% as well there. I made 7.6% on TNA early this morning.
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Levels I’m looking for tomorrow.
A trade of SPX above 873.29 and then a close below it.
A trade of RUT above 456.52 and then a close below it.
A close of less than 8835.25 and one of the above happens.
The NDX is likely going to 1179.63 beyond that its about 100pts higher. However, a close below 1165.38 would be nice for a short.

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The trend of the market is still down. Obviously right? I know where the trend is, I would venture to say 80%+ of the time I know where it is. My patience is an issue though and still gets me in trouble. If I don’t trade the trend early and get on it early, I tend to let it go and then day trade inside that trend which can be much more difficult to do. Use QCOR as the example a stock I’ve mentioned and owned in the 5′s traded it up into the 7′s. QCOR has broken out into the 9s now without a trend change and I’ve known that. Yet I didn’t hold onto it. Arguably looking at the chart below there is enough noise to throw one off the trade if you were following this. Its something I have to work on. Its the hard trade and I have to stay with it. The COMPX chart is another example. GOOG yet again. You want to see more?

QCOR trend:

The trend:

GOOG trend:

There was a part of October where I got caught on the wrong side of the trend..ie holding long, due to an oversold signal that in the past was HIGHLY reliable. Unfortunately the market turned into the worst market seen in 60 something years and blew through a very oversold level. Not only that, but the move down in October was tremendous. What I’ve learned to do now is either hedge my trend position when the market becomes overbought/oversold or cut my position drastically. I’ve also derived a new way of looking at price pivots based somewhat on the oversold/overbought that appear to have reliable effects.

Leave your favorite symbol in the comments or email me and I’d like to check it in my chart w/ settings to see if they show the same story you are expecting.

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