I was lightly long going into this morning where I flipped that position and added to it at the close. I’m short the SPX only. I’m looking for a nasty day tomorrow where maybe we see an intraday reversal. Maybe not. I sold TZA waaaay to early but still managed 7%. I actually had TZA down at 90, but stopped myself out on panic early in the day.

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Me too. I swapped my lite short to lite long eod.

I’ll look to go short tomorrow morning.

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Bought TZA @ 90.45.

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I’ve sold any long I’ve owned throughout this turmoil. I’ve capitulated. I’ve taken my losses and picked up my ass and did the right thing. I went smallish to the short side. I’m looking for a low to be put in this week. The monthly charts are very oversold, BUT this month has to end down for them to close the month out oversold. This is HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY HIGHLY likely to setup a major bottom when this month is over or the next one (December).

I did manage to make some cash on the long side today using TNA. I didn’t go into TZA which is the bearish 3x RUT ETF.

I hate that the volatility indexes are ratcheting upwards. VIX seems poised to breakout - if you can believe this.

BTW COMPX to hit that lower line in the chart above is 182 pts lower. The breakdown today suggest we are going there.

MACD turned down today on the COMPX daily chart, SPX, and RUT.

Update: The only thing I can see that matches the current market in the charts is the end of the 1974 bear market.

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The pressure is building under the foot of a weekly divergence in the SPX, RUT, NDX, COMPX and the other sectors that have been smashed, namely commodities, financials, and real estate.

A relief rally typically happens when this setup is showing its face. We had a rally off the 3rd week of October low based on this pattern. This time I think we will crack up to those levels I’ve been patiently waiting for.

The rest of the beaten downs:

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Selling the US dollar here via UDN. A double inverse dollar etf.

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Buying TNA, CF, APC, (ultra small spec in LVS), SSO + holding SSO from days ago.

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Direxion funds has thrown their hat into the leveraged ETF arena.

They have released the following 3x leveraged ETFs. If you don’t know how these work in a nutshell you take a current Index price and in this case, triple the performance of that day whether its a gain or loss that day. ie If the Russell 2000 is up 2% on a given day you would earn 6% if you owned TNA that day.

Bullish
ERX - Energy Bull 3X - 3x the Russell 1000 Energy index.
FAS - Financial Bull 3X - 3x the Russell 1000 Financial Index.
BGU - Large Cap Bull 3X - 3x the Russell 1000 Index.
TNA - Small Cap Bull 3X - 3x the Russell 2000 Index.

Bearish
ERY - Energy Bear 3X - 3x inverse the Russell 1000 Energy index.
FAZ - Financial Bear 3X - 3x inverse the Russell 1000 Financial Index.
BGZ - Large Cap Bear 3x - 3x inverse the Russell 1000 index.
TZA - Small Cap Bear 3X - 3x inverse the Russell 2000 index.

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Buy these:
EEB, EEM, SLX, EWZ, UWM, MVV, UYM, SSO, qld

and then anything on here:
http://www.stockrake.com/a-list-of-stocks-based-on-valuation-models-that-are-cheap~2008~10.html

Why I sold my TNA today? I’m a moron. However, I’ll be back into TNA for sure.

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I’ve been waiting and waiting and its here.

I will rub my hands together in a very mysterious way now.

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My precious precious rally.

I’ve been calling for it since the 10-10-08 lows.

To recap these are the numbers I’m looking for.

COMPX: 1894.39
This is the open on the weekly bar for 10-10-08.

SPX: 1097.56
This is the open on the weekly bar for 10-10-08.

RUT: 617.51
This is the open on the weekly bar for 10-10-08.

I got into this trade 1 week too early, but I will exit my index longs at those levels or close to it. Its getting tough though I’ll tell ya. One of the hardest trades I’ve ever sat through. Mistakes were definitely made along the way, but I’ll get out of the hole.

Global governments need to reflate the economy and it appears that is happening in a concerted effort.

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Here are two more reasons, why my shit is great, but I suck.

TWM Long:

YGE Short:

If you missed the orientation post, Green means long, Red means short.

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I’m starting to not believe that rally is possible now. A sign of a turn or am I right (just way late)?

I’m as apathetic as I can possibly be right now. Apathy doesn’t get more apathetic than me right now.

Bought COIN @ 6.69 and SSO @ 25.85, 26.78

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With the market toast its time to find new plays. Forget the old stocks I don’t care what they do. I want to grab the next trenders. The old soldiers have been shot and they are going to take time to heal. I gotta find those next monster trades as demonstrated in this post.

QCOR was one of my early hits this year and its still going and holding up incredibly well in this tape.

EZPW - Started mentioning EZPW on September 23rd.

Others to watch:
COCO, APOL, SXI, SLXP, HGR, VOLC, LMNX, SNTS, STEM, ASEI, COIN, VASC, KR, PTRY, SUSS, OSIR, HEV

Market is very oversold though now on a monthly basis while relative strength is building in the daily and weekly timeframes. All the very short term time frame stuff is clearly down and red for tomorrow, but I’m hoping for a massive intraday reversal. The volatility has come back again after taking a week off. There will be a bounce that will take all the old names for big runs, but as far as trends go, the old names in say commodities and such won’t be trending for awhile.

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Support held for now.

New upward short term channel. Hmm?

The same pattern is on EWZ, EEM, UWM, QLD, UYG, UYM, SEA (dry bulk sector etf), SSO, and many other symbols.

I expect this move to get to the levels of October 3rd or close to it. Which means SPX 1099, NDX 1470, RUT 619 (but that is a little high).

Holding EEM and will look to short things like QID, TWM, and other inverse items next week.

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