No Bounce Yet

Home / Leveraged ETFs / No Bounce Yet
July 2, 2010

Today sucked. My expectations were broken pretty much right away as the pattern did not play out as intended. Then very late in the day the market rallied off the lows and the indexes went green. Per the pattern that I am playing the bounce was actually too little of a move, so I’m glad the market closed red to maintain the conditions for a bounce.

Currently I’m down anywhere from 1-30% on various option positions due to vol crush. Surprisingly the Rydex funds lost very little. One trade that I cashed out with a gain of around 15% was QCOM. I took it off because it was pretty much the only green trade I had.

There was a shot to get out of all positions with nice gains very early when the market opened. My bias was to look for the open and go trade, so I wasn’t looking to take quick gains, I was looking to catch the big one. Unfortunately it didn’t happen…yet.

I don’t know if I’ve said it enough, but I’m bearish. The intermediate charts are very bearish. I’m playing for a very short term bounce.

At this point its a very risky trade and the next time I see these oversold conditions of this nature I am going to peel back and keep my position much smaller probably in the 30% range. These are very emotionally taxing trades, which probably has more to do with my position size than anything. However, these particular trades can take a number of days to work itself out.

The one thing that would have been horrible is if I had panicked this morning and sold out of my positions as the market finished better than at the morning window.

Current positions:
QQQQ calls, XLK calls (trimmed some), F calls, DIS call spread, FITB calls (small), LVS calls, XOM calls, JCP calls, and GOOG call spread. Plus I’m 100% long in the 2x funds. To say I’m exposed would be an understatement.

ERX was sold for a small gain in one account, but kept in other accounts. QCOM was sold for a gain. I also traded SPY calls intraday for a gain on the pop.




Related Posts

A Sample Of My Crystal Ball
Trades
I closed half my index shorts this morning (I was 100% short in these accounts) and closed out all other positions – EDZ, SMN, DIS puts, QID....
I Only Own One Stock
Leveraged ETFs, Leveraged Funds, Technical Analysis, Trades
I got out of nearly everything today except for 1 stock and that not stock isn’t anything special. Running for the exits? Not exactly. Just...
A Good Day Despite A Flat Tape Thanks To $RIMM
Leveraged ETFs, Leveraged Funds, Technical Analysis, Trades
I understand why some people might not understand my techniques. I don’t share them in detail. You only get to watch. How does one go from...
Long Oil, Gold, Gas
Leveraged ETFs, Leveraged Funds, Options, Technical Analysis, Trades
I got long the US markets, USO, and GOLD via DGP last Friday as well as relative plays with CZZ, CLNE (which I’m now out of, but looking to...

  • http://twitter.com/zentrader zentrader

    Just be careful not to be too bearish and overlook a possible bounce coming. While the market does look horrible, it's rather extended and a 1-3 day rally should happen anytime. It may be hard to sit through that with shorts.

  • http://www.stockrake.com StockRake

    I'm with ya, but I'm 100% long right now. :D

    I hope that bounce happens Tuesday. Then I think there is a chance to resell to a quick new low. After that a good July summer rally happens that still keeps the market in a bearish posture.

    Weekly and Monthly charts are all down and its difficult for them to turn quickly. However, plenty of room to have significant bounces.