Overbought/Oversold Sucks Right Now

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March 16, 2010

For the past 3 days now I’ve been playing the overbought condition of the market. Yesterday was my chance to get out, but I pressed it.

I got into SPY and IWM puts as well as TZA. I wish I didn’t. Losses in all of that. Never had a signal to do it on an intraday basis, but the daily is setup for a move, I don’t know the size of the move, but 1 day should give a red candle. Once this is overwith, I am ready to get back long. In fact, I want to buy certain stocks now even with the overbought condition. Particularly the quality laggers. I did buy 2 today plus one energy etf.

BP, PFE, ERX

Oil and gold are the plays everyone is talking about now. I was in them 2 weeks ago, took last week off, and now this is the week where they are acting well again. This is a train I want to get back on.

People are talking about the inflation trade based on FED speak, so we will see gold, oil, and maybe the soft ags do well. Coincidentally the TIP (TIPS) etf is turning UP on my screen this week. Interesting coincidence you think?

I also want to buy a combination of mostly quality dividend payers and some microcaps that are setup right.

Hence, the BP trade. Some others I’m on board with are:
JEF
HAL
GOLD
CPBY
CCME
GNA
MUR
PM
MRK
LLY
ETP
DNR
ACI
POT

Too many to name. I’m entering swing mode and will ride trends. Hopefully, though I get a down day tomorrow for my 2x inverse position.