Short Indexes Cash Elsewhere

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June 20, 2012

I got short yesterday the indexes. Not the best move, not the worst, according to what I’m seeing in the weekly charts. The bounce has been great, I haven’t participated as much as I would have liked too – which is close to nil, but its been mostly cash or long stocks.

With this bounce I’m seeing some swing indicators just switching now to green. That is not a good sign…its not a bad sign per se, but its more often than not when you get a move that is large before the indicators swap, its likely to bear a rally inside the bigger trend. Currently my weekly indicators are short and what we are seeing is the bounce caused by the oversold condition back on 5-19-12. That oversold never got relieved very well and I think that what is happening into today is the result of that condition.

COMPX has had a decent flag and break up today from the 6-4-12 low, but again, weekly hasn’t turned for me yet so I’m skeptical. The SPX has turned though so its possible the COMPX and RUT catch up this week which means further upside … once a pullback happens.

I’ve been long DNKN and I sold out today. I will rebuy it though. Waiting to see what happens off this overbought condition.