Thanks For The 43 Points Nasdaq, Cya Next Week

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July 18, 2008

Well on the week to week basis we got the rebound I was expecting.

On a week over week basis, the RUT gained 19 points, and the SPX gained 21 points. However, things like the UYG did 14.6%. So certain items this week exploded while others were just good.

I flipped to a small index SHORT position today. I know we have AAPL and a host of other earnings next week – I don’t care. We got a big clue from MSFT and GOOG. On any early week up movement I’ll short the shit out of it. Don’t get me wrong, it could go up another week and in that case I’ll short into it and is the reason I went lite with the trade. I only wanted to be long for 1 week and this was it. Now the market has to prove itself from here. If the market dumped hard on an AAPL report then I would look to the middle of the week for a bounce. To me it looks like the market could just have a really tough rest of the month that ultimately ends in a sideways move with a lot of volatility in between. However, August would continue that theme early in the month and then dump to new lows. After that final dump I’m betting we see true capitulation with volume in the sectors like tech and really start to see a turn in sectors that have been red hot like commodities such as oil, coal, and the ag stocks.

Sold: SPF @ $4 for a 6% gain, GOOG @ 484 for a -2% loss, RTK @ 1.61 for -4% loss earlier today, DAR @ 15.95 (thats a short position). I actually tried to short my beloved CPST, but Ameritrade wouldn’t let me.

Bought: ACI Aug 55 calls, BTU Aug 65 calls, CVX Aug 90 calls, all three of these plays are for an oversold bounce and nothing more. Most likely a 1 week max trade.

Holding: PWAV, LLNW, BRCM, and BRCM calls.

Overall the week was very good. I made the forced trade on GOOG which was just lacking all intelligence. Nothing behind that trade at all. No planning, no analysis (in fact I went against the analysis), just flat out guessing. Much more was made this week over what was lost though on that GOOG trade and other tiny losses so all in all happy.




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