Waiting Before Jumping Long

Home / Agriculture Stocks / Waiting Before Jumping Long
August 14, 2008

It may bite me in the ass, but I’m waiting to get long. Till Friday to see if either tomorrow or Friday provides a down day that will make my shorts profitable. I’m bullish intermediate term, so I’m playing a high risk, arguably, low reward trade here. However, I still have confidence that it will occur.

Buying weakness this week has been my mantra, I said it 3 times: here, here, and here.

I’ll say it again. If tomorrow is weak, buy it, but I want to be really weak and I want it to CLOSE weak. That almost happened today, but we got a bullshit/skeptical rally. Again, most charts are bullish aside from a few sectors (financials). Goldman Sachs (GS) looks like it has a gap down in its near future.

Tomorrow we have WMT before the bell and CPI data. A couple of people on Fast Money tonight mentioned that they think there will be an overreaction by the market to the downside based on the CPI numbers showing inflationary pressure and the market may assume rate hike is closer, but that reaction will be wrong. This plays exactly into what I’m thinking in terms of an intraweek pullback, except I didn’t see the excuse for the weakness coming, I just know it comes. Macke recommended DOG or the inverse Dow etf tonight in his final trade (He’s on board). Without a doubt the Dow and SPX have been underperforming the the RUT and NDX. In fact, my short idea this week would be great if trading those two indices instead.

I’m looking for USO/OIL to make another move higher either tomorrow or Friday, preferably tomorrow.

With Oil and other commodities moving or bouncing higher, the solars have turned back up and rather quickly. I liked SPWR last week and stopped myself out of the trade, but I’d like to be a buyer of it again.

So today’s add on to my shorts was incorrect and turned out to be a loser for more than 1% loss. Plus the shorts I had from yesterday were down today based on the higher daily close in the RUT and NDX albeit marginally higher (.37% RUT) and (.05% NDX) – big deal.

CALM – still ticked higher today working on another all time high.

MATK – new 52 week high today. Goes with the buy biotech on weakness theme I mentioned a few months ago, then a few times per month leading into August.

EFU – Sold EFU today with a 3.6% gain getting out @ 102.42. Now EFU might have a slight selloff due to the US dollar pulling back after its enormous move, but again, in the coming weeks if the US dollar rallies, EFU should break its all time high (very close now). Same idea as above, buy the weakness. You are seeing it on tv now, “Bullish on America” headlines. This is due to the dollar rallying, emerging markets becoming riskier, etc. etc. This is the reason US markets are rallying and will continue to rally. However, the dollar is ready for a two day pullback and that was signaled by the commodities taking off today, and what may be coming tomorrow off the econ data. We’ll see though I’m just guessing afterall.

HOGS and SNTS holding up. BTW restaurant stocks sold off a little today. They are running in tandem with the dollar. The dollar pulls back so do they.

Here are two extremely biased charts that support my hopeful position for tomorrow.




Related Posts

Another Winning Day, APWR, FAZ, TZA
Leveraged ETFs, Leveraged Funds, Market Comments, Trades
My big winners today were APWR (21%), FAZ(7%), TZA(4.5%), short QLD(3%), short SSO(3%), as well as getting short via my double leveraged funds over...
A Nice Trading Day Today
Alternative Energy, coal stocks, Commodity Stocks, Farm & Construction Machinery, Financials, Leveraged ETFs, Solar Stocks, Stock Comments, Trades
What I’m doing now is creating a morning post and then just commenting under that post all my trades for the day. Its kind of like twittering...
Market Moving Back Up
Market Comments
We are finally getting the move I’ve been waiting for. Unfortunately its from a lower level than I anticipated it would start from. However,...
Took Profits On Many Trades
coal stocks, Commodity Stocks, Leveraged ETFs, Solar Stocks, Trades
Sold QLD (first trade was a 50% cut) @ 33.9 & 33.73 19%+ gains Sold SSO (first trade was a 50% cut) @ 30.8 & 30.11 19%+ gains I sold half...