I did the Happy Leap Year thing too early. Most everything sucked from me as I have this mental block to go short for some odd reason. I’ve made more money shorting than going long actually, but this year and late 07 I can’t seem to make the switch. So I got hit with the big drop on my index longs today 5.4% in both NDX and RUT. OUCH. However, this is why I was keeping my stock trades to a minimum and light positions because I knew that today would be a crossroads of where the market is going next. Apparently that is going to be down. The Fast Money crew backed me up in my thinking that if Monday is a huge down open they want to buy it, while Pete Najarian is waiting for a panic spike in the VIX/VXN. Both the VIX/VXN were under control when I left the house to go down to the Fast Money taping in Miami around 2pm then while driving down there the market went into a bigger panic and sent these indexes flying.

Sucked:

The indexes.

SVA - Dropped a little more (what didn’t).

CREE - Down 10% now from the buy yesterday.

CPST - Got hit today, what didn’t? Still up 16%.

YHOO calls continue to suck.

JRJC - Sold it yesterday, TODAY the damn stock pops 25%. I did however, buy it back right at the open and managed 8% off the day trade and being the only thing that worked for me today. Not a total loss, but I was talking about JRJC and held onto it despite sell signals and then I capitulated. Then they come out with earnings and the shorts get squeezed. Another stock where I’m on the right trail, but my timing is off by one day. So I’m going to show a little chart fiesta highlighting all three stocks in February that I was right in finding would move higher except I sold these things 1 day TOO SOON…

The 1 day early sell post

GRO

The one day early sell post

FRPT

The 1 day early sell post

So I’m like a hound dog finding these movers, but get out right at the exact moment before the move. Now I had some sell signals on all of these and the sell was a good opportunity, but they were short term sells vs the swing signals which were long for all 3. Hard to know what to trust and when to trust it. Same thing happened with SEED where I had sell signals, but instead of selling I hung on and got hit there.

Worked:

The small up trade of buying back JRJC this morning @ 17.95 and selling @ 18.98 for 8% today in a really crappy tape.

Got to see Fast Money Live down in Coral Gables today @ The Biltmore Hotel. Their surprise special guest happened to be Alonzo Mourning from the Miami Heat. Zo is my favorite bball player of all time for my favorite bball team. They took this picture after Fast Money was over.

They filmed the live show - I think they got a shot of me and my wife, but not sure I haven’t watched it on TiVO yet. After the show they filmed the web extra, and then they filmed an upcoming Fast Money University segment where the crowd got to ask questions. I asked a question if the early cyclical sectors such as retail, transports, etc. popping higher are telling us that the recession is behind us.

Adami said yes mentioning BNI and Buffet. Macke said kinda and offered WMT as a play.

If you like this post, check these out too

• June 9, 2008 -- Semi-Impressive Day
• February 27, 2008 -- What Worked and Sucked Today 2272008
• February 26, 2008 -- What Worked and Sucked Today 2262008
• February 25, 2008 -- What Worked and Sucked Today 2252008

Thanks for reading

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