I have feelings and they are tingling and they are telling me to be short for tomorrow. I’m taking a heavy position. Hopefully that tingling is not my toes from sitting in the same position too long.

Today the market almost went flat, but it was very VERY important that the market closed up and closed up as much as its doing right now - Dow 200. If the market had closed flat or down, then we might be going higher. That scenario is off the table - we are going lower.

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I mentioned over the weekend that I thought maybe we could break the overhead trendline and move higher then later in the week test it to the downside. That was wrong. However, I did provide the levels to look for to make a trade.

The market moved fast right out of the gate this morning. I was quick to cut my losses and mentioned in the comments section that we have broken some important levels (around 10 am) which should take us down, but I didn’t believe it at the time. I want to tell you that I don’t use typical retracement levels to come to these numbers. They come from my custom indicators and they have nothing to do with typical support and resistance or pivots.

So at 10am I said that 1087.6 was the next level for the NDX, but that seems too far down. The NDX closed @ 1091.16. 1085.6 is an important price point as well. So now I want to see a dip below those numbers tomorrow morning and a close or a morning move that goes higher than those price levels to go long.

406.54 is the number to watch on the RUT. The RUT was DOWN ROUGHLY 12% today!!!
1386.42 and 1384.35 are the levels for the COMPX.
806.58 and 800.03 are the levels for the SPX.

I bought SRS and TZA around 2pm after seeing a breakout setup in both. I sold both of those for gains today and did not hold till tomorrow.

Many online stock bloggers and the tech analyst on Fast Money are now looking for even more downside. 600 SPX was the call on Fast Money, a price level that Lousie Yamada projected a few weeks ago. I’m only considering shorting once any level is taken out to the downside. Today’s absolute price destruction did not give me confidence to go long at the close like I mentioned very early in the morning.

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Market indexes have broken through some major support lines and I want to see what happens at the close.

I want to be a long buyer only at the close and only if we finish in the red. Any comeback rally day, I will short.

I may go short at these already egregious levels today though as the indexes have broken important levels and the next zones of support are much lower.

I stopped out of SOLF and MTL with losses of around 12% and 14%. Blech.

Will today be a Black Monday or a Black Monday fake out?

*SPX is @ that 851.81 level I mentioned yesterday.

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SPX is right around some major inflection point, but both the RUT, and the COMPX have considerable upside room which makes me think we are going to see the SPX break this trendline to the upside.

After the break I think it will selloff to test the line causing a break even for the week in terms of performance. This would be a victory for the bulls if this played out. It could also end up being a high consolidation around last Friday’s close by this coming Friday. Again, my guess based on these levels:

Low Intraday SPX Levels
910.96
924.19
High Intraday SPX Levels
964.36
969.15
———
Daily Low SPX levels
898.95
919.21
Daily High SPX Levels
984.94
996.23

If a break of recent lows happens on the SPX then look to these levels for support and direction to where the market will selloff to.
851.81
806.53
800.03
——-

Just for the heck of it here are the levels for the NDX
Daily NDX from High to Low
1297.57
1240.93
1169.78
1165.38

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In SOLF @ 5.54

I’m looking and hoping for a close over 5.81

Normally I’d expect SOLF to close @ the highs of the day based on a paintbar pattern I have, chart included in a minute, and if it doesn’t close on the highs it typically will trade higher the next few days.

As I typed this, SOLF started moving…chart coming in a bit.

A close over 5.81 and 5.69 is important for continuation of this upmove, otherwise it might just be a daytrade.

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I don’t know if it was foolish or not, but I kicked myself out of TBSI on the opening bar drop. Took my loss and walked even though 2minutes later TBSI bounced about .40 cents higher.

I bought MTL @ 6.04. I bought it in an overbought state, and it was a much better buy at 5.95. MTL is curiously strong today like Altoids. So I want to watch other steel stocks and see if anything moves with it.

Placed a 4% stop on SOL which will kick me out with a 4% gain if it sells off today. APWR also has that stop on. I’m interested in SOLF and JASO today playing catch up and that they are China related. I mentioned earlier this week that China (FXI) has a possible shot at some upside from here based on the charts of course.

I want to buy weakness at the close.

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The gains in the NDX (9%ish) and the RUT (11.4%ish) were outstanding. My only mistake was not adding back the money I took off the table after Monday’s run. Alas the gains have been good.
I have sold my index longs as a precaution at the close. I want to buy back on weakness or profit taking if it unfolds on Friday. Either way I’m pretty sure I want to get long for December barring a monsterous drop on Friday.

Yesterday’s buys of APWR, YGE, and SOL were outstanding. I commented on previous posts about my complete sell out of YGE. Shortly after I got out YGE went red on the day. It has nothing to do with me and everything to do with my sell signals.

APWR I posted that I sold half and put in a stop on it. I changed the stop to a trailing stop of 8%.
Up 18% and I cut it 50%.

SOL I also kept my full position on and I can’t remember the stop I put on it. Up 8% with the AH push.

TBSI I bought late in the day and I actually bought it poorly when it was overbought. I could have waited another 5 minute bar and got it a few % lower. I’m up 4.2% on the intraday trade and held in full.

Many stocks on my undervalued list went apeshit today.

There is a multi pronged chart turn going on between the US dollar, Emerging markets, and commodities right here. FXI (China looks good), EWZ (Brazil) looks good, and UYM (maybe).

Semiconductors are setting up for a possible multi-week bear market rally here imo. USD is the easy double etf play on that sector.

I’m exhausted, so I won’t get into price levels I’m looking for and I’ll just say Happy Thanksgiving and cya Friday.

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Topside levels
RUT 452
SPX 898
COMPX 1499

I’m also looking at UYG and the 6.05 level.

I get worried if we take out today’s open tomorrow on the indexes that closed positive.

I bought SOL, YGE, and APWR today near the end of the day. They have room a bit up before hitting major resistance (on these 3 symbols), but if the same characteristics show on these 3 symbols they are most likely showing up in other stocks in the sector. My trade in these names are only for the very short term.

Forgot to mention some of the trades today.
The mix of RUT and NDX actually made a small gain, but mostly they offset each other today.
LVS made a little bit on of 1.5%.
TZA made a small gain as well of 1%.
I also sold SSO and QLD this morning near the open.

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YGE @ 3.99
APWR @ 3.94

Alternative energy hot potato.

5 minute charts showing that same pop potential LVS exhibited earlier this morning and then did again later in the day. LVS is consolidating nicely actually. Wish I didn’t get stopped out.

It looks like JRCC could bounce more than today as well fwiw.

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Picked up some LVS @ 3.99 for a lotto ticket.

5 min and 30 min look poised to pop.

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I’m glad I trimmed my index longs yesterday with force. NDX is already down 5% on the 2x funds.

I sold my QLD and SSO this morning for gains of 7% and 11%.

I was looking to buy TNA in the early part of the morning. I saw TZA trigger on the 5minute chart which is the BEARISH 3x RUT etf. I have a tight stop of 3% on it and won’t hesitate to buy weakness today. I won’t hesitate to flip on this trade and go right into TNA either if the charts turn. As I type I might be stopped out now.

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I was heavily long the RUT and NDX with the 2x funds at Friday’s close. The RUT did 15% while the NDX did close to 13%. Happy to get a nice one in the bag. I trimmed these positions back 50%.

I also bought this morning TNA, SSO, QLD, and C. I put in an order for UYG that never got filled. That sucked because UYG had a nice second half run on the day.

I sold C with a slight gain on the day and wussed out basically in not wanting to hold overnight.

I held SSO, and QLD overnight and sold TNA before the close for a gain of 4%.

We basically got 100 points up on the COMPX already which I was looking for. There might be some more tomorrow morning which is where I want to cover a bit more there. Tomorrow’s close is important if this rally is going to continue.

If the NDX opens above 1165 and closes below it, then I will consider a short at the close or intraday. I’m also looking at 1499 for the COMPX as an important level. A GIANT HOWEVER is that I think if and when the next dip happens it should setup the next move higher as long as NDX doesn’t close below 1085 and COMPX below 1384.

The important items cooperating now with an upside move are the turning down of the volatility indexes VXN and VIX.

So I’m still long, just turning down my exposure. After a 15% up day in the RUT its a good spot to cover some up.

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I bought index longs today at the close. I was either looking for the washout or a move higher. Got a move higher back over a level I was waiting for.

Looking for 100 pts higher on the COMPX.

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I would think that with a near 200+ open and then selling off -60 from the levels we are at right now the VIX would at least be green. I want to get long today eod, if we get another selloff today. Hopefully, this will be a massive squeeze starting either next week or the week after.

Made 1 intraday trade in TZA again. In @ 143.41, Out @ 145.17. Better than nothing — almost.

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I’ve only been short for 3 days and those were a good 3 days to be short. Took my 13.4% in the SPX today. Unfortunately I got fooled out of my SDS and TZA buys this morning like a piker. It unfortunate because it would have been a huge day for those trades.

Luckily I have no control over trades at Rydex funds till 3:55 pm :D.

Be on the lookout for an intraday reversal tomorrow or a pop and drop type day. Things can’t stay this “frickn” directional forever. Macke said, what I’ve been saying for weeks, “The Shorts have had it waaay too easy.”

So you know the drill we took out the 10 year lows today on pretty much everything. The 2002 lows are dangling right there for the taking on some indexes while others broke em today. Another day like this and the Dow will test its 2002 low. The RUT has significanly more room to the downside to test its 2002 lows. SPX broke its 2002 lows. NDX has about 200 points more down and roughly the same for the COMPX.

I want to be a buyer at the end of the day tomorrow as I think there is a setup for next week.

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