I’m still short. I didn’t get wrapped up in feeling bullish after the Thursday, Friday, Tuesday thrust. It did kick me out of my trading account positions though and it did get me questioning myself. However, I stuck with the 2x inverse funds after going over the weekly indicators and seeing that there was still definite danger in the charts and in my indicators. It was not a good long setup. Today made up for it. Tuesday’s move is what really threw me.

Basically the indexes are showing the same exact setup as last week. However, what happened this time around is that we are getting oversold in the back half of the week and not the Monday/Tuesday like we did last week.

Last week I was playing for a total selloff into last Friday that would setup a buy going into this week. We had a very nice reactionary short squeeze that was sort of a blowoff. We should see new closing lows now. I’ve been in the 2x inverse funds after adding back to 100% on Thursday (I think). However, Thurs and Friday were bad for my option positions which took losses and scared me/stopped me out of my positions which would have killed today and more than made up for any drawdown. Same ole same ole.

Its no surprise where we closed today at least on the SPY, its the around the close of 5-24-11, 3-29-11 and close to others on this critical support area. If we gap below that tomorrow look for panic and then maybe a bounce to test. Followed by another down day Friday to secure oversold readings. If we do selloff and bounce only mildly and Friday is a nothing day. I would think the selloff continues to next week as well.

Very happy I stuck with the 2x inverse funds. Played a few shorts today, FAZ and IWM puts. I’m out of the IWM puts, but kept FAZ and bought EDZ heavy. EDZ I think is a bargain here technically. I will get heavier short the Emerging complex tomorrow as well. RSX, EEM puts, the whole nine.

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The bounce move up is not over, but tomorrow may look sketchy. What I’m looking for is a possible gap up and then a selloff.

Often when these oversold bounces occur you get a nice bounce day (today), then you get an equal move or consolidating move of today’s move. However, after either move there is a slight trickle upwards. We didn’t move up enough today and as a collective, many stocks are still in oversold zone. A big “however,” is that there was some major relief to these conditions and if (lets just say) 70% of stocks relieved the condition that sets up this down move day to re-entrench bears and screw over longs that bought today’s close. Easy example:
Market is down tomorrow, and dicks around Wednesday, then roars back upward Thursday when CSCO reports after the bell on Wednesday to new intra-week highs. Disclosure: I am long CSCO calls.

Now what I’m looking for by the close of this week is a “potential” change back to trend up. I think its highly unlikely, but its completely possible. Less people expect it, the fear has shown its hand already. Let me show you in chart form what I mean. See SPX charts..

What I Did Today

I sold my TYH, EWZ 31%/20%, and VALE calls for very nice over the weekend gain of 44% on first half and 50% on the other. I also sold my TYH for gains, and bought intraday on the morning open PCX calls (sold for 18%), and throughout the morning QQQQ calls, IWM calls, DRYS, VLO calls, and PBR calls. I forgot that I sold out of both my PBR and VLO last week. I would have totally forgotten about it if not for a few tweets I noticed of other traders mentioning them talking their book.

What I’m Looking For Tomorrow

I would be a buyer of some of the same sectors if we see red days Tuesday and Wednesday. Mining – steel, gold, silver, coal.

Retail stocks seem to be hanging in there. Oil stocks also play into what I mentioned above. Semiconductors – we may have had a major fakeout to the downside in this sector, its too early to tell, but if this sector starts to rise I would want to be a buyer. Again if this sector starts to tick up, this could be used as the reason we see either a test of or new highs in the market indexes. Something I can’t rule out yet.

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The only trade I had coming into today were the UNH and AET calls I mentioned yesterday.

I sold those calls on the morning pop. At that same time, my wife was out of the house, and I was home with my 1 year old son. I look at my ThinkorSwim desktop and bam I’m up a couple of K 10 minutes into the market. I dumped all of it and changed my son’s diaper.

When it was said and done: 18% gain in UNH Nov 25 calls, 9% gain in AET Jan 27 calls, 23% gain in UNH Nov 26 calls.

I did nothing the rest of the day until about 30min from the close. However, all day I’m tweeting thoughts.

I tweeted, “I’m thinking this week…..blow off top…which means these next two days could be big. $$ Would have rather had today end lower than this.”

I was hoping we ended down on the day that would give me a little more confidence in getting long, but I think what is happening here is that we are going to have a blow off top. That means we are going to blast without looking back, however, only this week. The market might not hit a new high, it doesn’t have to. It just needs to at least close where we closed today or higher by Friday’s close.

With this idea I went long heavy with the 2x NDX, 2x RUT, 2x SPX. I also bought BAC calls of the , and remember I wanted to get back INTO TM (Toyota) calls – bought Nov 85 for maximum gain if it pops. The USDJPY is moving the right way for TM plus Citigroup upgraded TM today on valuation. Read that report here.

I also bought BAC Nov 17.5 and Nov 19 calls. I also got back INTO the UNH Nov 25 calls I sold this morning. Anything below 25 right now on UNH should produce profits.

I also bought long UYG. All these longs were done in the last 30minutes of the day.

Now, I’m loaded up long for this potential pop/blow off top, BUT I will look to enter a PLETHORA of shorts on FRIDAY. Yes two days from now when everyone is high on the market, the trap will be set. Ok so I’m getting dreamy with the words, but that is what I will be doing. Getting short on Friday.

The Dry Bulk stocks really had a nice move today, but it happened mostly later in the day. TBSI lagged, so it might be a trade tomorrow.

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Where do I start?
The long RUT did 1.6%, and the SPX and NDX did .60%. I cashed out of this long trade today at the close.

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Charts posted starting on 9-1-09

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What happened since

Said it numerous times on twitter as well.

Individual trades during this time frame

ABX 346%, GFI 214%

MTW 57%; 85%; I think I sold the rest with a 100% gain this one went on and on though. This tweet on $MTW called the BO.

TSO 8%

KOG 40%

DRYS 74%; 33% the rest got sold eod.

Sep 4 $S calls 150%, Some $S Oct calls 25%; 55% in other calls.

NGAS 50% gain, This was the buy

CQP sold rest at 12%; sold half at 15%

I sold out of all my $CEPH calls. This could be a mistake in the making, but I will revisit it. I sold to raise cash and chase higher beta stuff.

My mistakes during this time were $YRCW, $SVA, $DPTR, and $WRES. All of these had huge BTFO moves. Calls in DPTR, YRCW, and owning the WRES and SVA would have cranked big time. These were my mistakes as there was never a reason to sell these on my charts.

New positions include: LDK Oct 10 and 11 calls, POT Oct 95 calls, FSLR 145 calls, SKS Nov 7.5 calls, GILD Nov 49 calls, PBR Jan 50 calls, ROYL 16% & 15%, (Had a righteous breakout. This was on the watchlist.) S Dec 7.5 calls which are lotto plays if S gets a bid by then. CPSL, BPZ, PAL, FRG (today), and sold some AVII today, but kept it for other accounts – didn’t want this to be another mistake – no reason to sell. HK Dec 28 calls, CROX Oct 8 (following volume). Still have EGLE calls, but trimmed some exposure today. Sold EXM calls for 30%. Have LH Oct calls which will lose 100% (this was a option volume chase – stupid play – chart sucked). Have OCNF Dec calls that will probably be worthless, but such a small insignificant position – lotto. ESLR is also a new position.

I’ve been position sizing according to the charts. Better chart gets more money, worse charts get less.

As with options, well at least the way I trade them, they are often immediate losers. What I have been doing is leapfrogging by taking gains from previous trades on stocks that ran and then going into the next sector or stock that is about to move.

Its been a good month.s

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This chart was posted yesterday after the big DAILY down move in the market.

This is how the same chart looks today.

Good call?

What sucked:

EJ not working I had to dump it for a 3.9%ish loss. ABAT which I thankfully got rid of yesterday for a loss as well around 5% or so.

What worked:

Amazing market timing all week long capturing every big move of the week and not getting hit with the down day yesterday in a bad way. Gained around 10% or more I’m not sure on the week trading the indexes.

RTK – Obviously a good trade, you’ve seen the chart. 46% and 33% gains.

CAKE – Called it beautifully. Seriously who is talking about restaurants? C’mon. 6.24% gain since yesterday’s buy.

RT – Who the f$ck is interested in Ruby Tuesday’s? On a day where the Dow ended up +300 you would not think RT, RUBY FRIGGIN TUESDAY would outperform RIMM, AAPL, and MSFT. Pretty nice. 6.79% gain since yesterday’s buy.

Things like URBN, KSS, BBY, CPKI  (Which I should have bought over CAKE, but I’m not complaining), RUTH, and DRI were posted about 2 days ago before this blowup in all these stocks. I’m begging you to profit off this crap. I warned Howard about it here, but I think he is too busy to read it and every comment that comes through.

The QLD and UWM positions which were bought yesterday didn’t achieve as much as my index fund purchases from yesterday, but still managed respectable gains of 1.5% and 2%.

I still own SNTS which is breakeven right now.

I bought: MATK, and LLNW at the close. LLNW sold off and I like that it did. I’m taking a shot that it will continue its move higher. They are streaming the Olympics.

I cashed in my index long positions completely and will BUY WEAKNESS next week. Cole I hope you cleaned up on those SPY calls.

A new stock list and a spotlight on the Restaurant sector will be coming this weekend (hopefully).

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The long worked again today. On my trimmed long from yesterday I added another 1.9% in the mutual funds which I’m still holding and the ETF’s of UWM and QLD were sold this morning for a variety of gains ranging from 4.5% to 7%. Loving this long trade, but what little exposure I have left is likely to get smacked tomorrow unless C has a ridunkulous quarter tomorrow and who is expecting that sheet to happen? Never know though maybe it won’t be THAT bad.

This was my escape from ICEcatraz. Managed to get out near the open while the trade had positive value. I got out @ 5 while the same calls closed out at 1.7. Sweet and I didn’t have to use a dummy in my bunk, chisel through the wall, and use a rubber raft made of raincoats to get out of the trade.

Escape from ICEcatraz

I made some other buys besides SNTS and VPHM today. I felt like anything I mentioned got hit, so I didn’t want to mention anything else till later on, which is me being superstitious. Traders tend to be superstitious anyways.

Bought and still own: BRCM, BRCM Aug 30 calls, SNTS, RTK, LLNW, PWAV, and SPF. I’m testing a new technique out so I want to see how these little puppies perform over the next two weeks. I also bought some GOOG AH @ 498. This was after the drop and I saw it bouncing. I took a stab at it and it was a forced trade. All day I’m saying the chart looks like shit, the weekly, the daily, the shorter term charts though were looking good. The trade was unnecessary and I tied up capital for no reason. I despise forced trades because it highlights my lack of discipline which has been rather good lately. I’ll probably cut the GOOG and be happy with the lesson.

Bought and lost on: VPHM today. Took the 4% loss intraday.

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RUT gave us longs 7.36% with the UWM giving out even more @ 7.73%. The NDX gave us 5% while the QLD gave out 4.78%.

If you’re new to my site, I’ve been long since Friday.

Today I trimmed back my index longs in the mutual funds (because the timing I have to trade them is only twice a day), but kept all of my leveraged ETF positions. I wanted to take advantage of being up and not be as committed to the long as I was. On what I trimmed back today was around a 2% gain. On a drop, though I’d put that powder to use.

The ICE calls are also up fractionally, but I held on for one more day, because I think ICE could put in a larger pop.

In the previous post I talked about BRL and the watchlist. It reminded me that I never calculated the performance of the previous watchlist that I had on the sidebar before erasing it. I’ll say like I’ve said before that it wasn’t maintained very accurately, however, the watchlist, if closed out today, which is what I did, still produced a gain of 30% for the total list/portfolio. Some of the big winners were CLF with a 103% gain, JRCC with a 348% gain. The big losers were well, check out this spreadsheet for those. Now there was plenty of room to get out, in fact I said to take the profits on the coal stocks on June 19th in those names.

Its pretty amazing to me that I can somewhat haphazardly stumble on a 30% gain in this crap market where most pros are not making any money, but in fact losing money, and the StockRake watchlist crushed them all. Now you could call it lucky or whatever. Maybe so on that particular list, but the buys were well planned, while the sells off that list were never really posted about except for the coal stocks. I’m not bragging though just proud of the performance.

I could brag about this ridiculous performance though because it was documented and posted about. I just personally didn’t participate in it.

Old watchlist spreadsheet

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I went into the longs heavily this morning and markets continued higher all day closing at the highs. For a very very brief moment in time after the market gapped higher the NDX went and filled its gap and went negative for a few ticks then it was off to the races. I saw this action as very bullish and I noted it yesterday in the post that yesterdays price action was bullish as well.

I hope you weren’t short going into today and if you were I’d like to hear why.

Today netted 3.4% for NDX and 5.2% for RUT. Very nice. Of course the morning purchases didn’t get the full frontal, but light long held from yesterday did. The fresh buys probably picked up about 3% in the RUT and 1%+ in the NDX.

I mentioned earlier today about a scalp trade in ANAD. I’m testing a new scalp strat out and this trade was good for 2%.

CROX did not move today. I’ve had several opportunities to get out of my options with 20-30% gain and didn’t take it. I wish I did though. The charts still say a break of the recent 2 day highs is coming.

I sold all of my CPST today and rebought ABAT. I think I forgot to post that I sold it a few days ago.

I sold my UWM position as well getting over 4%.

I’m still long, but I sold most of my index positions into this move to protect profits.

Tomorrow does look like a setup for more upside.

BTW did you see JOYG today? Damn……

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ACOR was fantastic. I profiled and bought it last week. The sucker popped 32% today. I sold all of my position in ACOR today. ACOR hit a new all time closing high today fwiw.

The biotech move though is not over yet.

Market dropped. I took a hit of around 2.5% on the NDX and 2% on the RUT. I added to my index longs today.

My server has been screwy today, you may have noticed big delays. I was getting a ton of hits due the ACOR call.

BTW CVI also has popped.

I bought CROX Jun 11 calls near the close for .25.

I bought UWM @ 53.79 and sold it @ 54.34 on an intraday basis today for a gain of close to 1%.

ABAT, ABP, CPST all were green today. Getting interested in DAR all over again.

If you noticed this site acting weird today its because I’ve been moving it to a new server since this morning and takes a while for the DNS cache at ISP’s around the world to refresh.

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I woke up this morning around 10am. Sometimes I skip the open, today was one. I looked at ESLR and see it down -7.5% and I said, “F$%k!” Dumped it and saved myself an extra 2% hit because it dropped 9.5% at the close. Only thing that sucked today.

The market indexes rocked though and I make a lot more money there. Today was great with 2% gain with the split RUT/NDX trade. I still am positioned long heavily. Expecting more up in the markets.

UWM was still working obviously with the RUT working and I held onto it.

HXM popped to a new high.

PHO hit a new high – I do not own it, but profiled it on Clean Green Stocks.

GILD popped nice today too for a new high – Without me on board.

Both KHD and CVI both were up today.

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