Why I Missed This Rally

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March 18, 2009

Because I’m a shmuck and I decide to follow someone else and not listen to my own crap. That is the honest truth, but I own up to the mistake being my own and not the person’s trades I followed. I executed the trades in AMZN and FAZ. Both of those were my own doing. I still have them both and they are both under water a lot right now.

I mean why would I not listen to myself when I clearly called this rally?

Everyone has done it before. You are following your trading plan and bam that one time you don’t follow, it becomes a whopper trade. Well this one was so far.

Ok so did we hit bottom? Maybe. I don’t really think so, but I’m open to the idea. So if a bottom was made the market has to do what it does at the end of bear markets.

Here is a weekly chart of SPX post 1987 crash.
spx1987

Weekly chart of 2002-2003 bottom.
spx20022003

SPX daily analysis:
spxtoday

Now my own systems even though they caught this entire move down (without me on board) and this recent rally last week (again without me on board) that also has carried over this week, is short now and was short on last Friday’s close all the way to this coming Friday.

Lesson # 456a is that I need to get confident in following my own stoof (sic) and my own weekly stoof is short and my daily stoof right here based on the SPX would be short for an eventual pullback.

I bought a couple March 40 calls. They are tiny gambles based on the oversold nature of FAZ. Yesterday these same calls were up over 100% after FAZ hit the low of 36, so I figured I test this out.


Now I already shifted the blame for my FAZ trade, so I am free to post this “make me want to gouge my eyes out” chart of FAZ.

fazstupid

If anything I wrote above makes any sense – congratulations. I’m still short the index funds (not nonsensical) in addition to any real nonsensical crap I’m stuck in.

Moreover, the fact that my tagging plugin found “stoof” as a word, created a mild chuckle.




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  • http://www.stockrake.com StockRake
  • stoxtar

    Someone is beating the heck out of FAZ. Anyway, I'm seeing indication that we may have bottomed for the year – max base at 730-740 prob next week. I know it sounds crazy but… My take is, pay attention to those signals of yours they may be trying to tell u somthg.

  • http://www.stockrake.com StockRake

    Yeh if this market doesn't end with a red weekly candle, my stuff will flip to long and so far, its looking like its going to go long.

  • stoxtar

    I'd scale in. It's going to be a choppy ride

  • stoxtar

    Someone is beating the heck out of FAZ. Anyway, I'm seeing indication that we may have bottomed for the year – max base at 730-740 prob next week. I know it sounds crazy but… My take is, pay attention to those signals of yours they may be trying to tell u somthg.
    Pls ignore this if your signals say otherwise. It's early and it sounds crazy even to me.

  • http://www.stockrake.com StockRake

    Yeh if this market doesn't end with a red weekly candle, my stuff will flip to long and so far, its looking like its going to go long.

  • stoxtar

    will be a choppy ride