http://www.stockrake.com

1. Bears that held onto shorts up to this point, being wrong the whole way March-August, are on the verge of throwing in the towel right at the top. You don’t think they are out there? They are.

2. Nothing is pointing down in terms of any technical indicator that I know and trust or any you know and trust. And by trust I mean something that was right from March till August. Not some shit you pigeoned off of some talking head like Roubini, EW, etc. As Santelli said tonight, the stock market (price) is only the scoreboard and that scoreboard keeps ratcheting up in the faces of comatosed drool dripping bears.

3. Bearish setups are getting blown up. We had a smallish bearish setup the past few days and we managed to make a new closing high on the SPX. WTF?! Can’t seem to buy a down day.

4. End of the Month ramp up. This is really the last week of August trading and the sideline slow money funds will not want to look like dopes when they send out their monthly statements. If they don’t look like they were invested in new shit during this move, you can count on their clients calling in redemption’s.

5. We are close to overbought on the 3 indexes that I care about, but because we are not YET overbought, I think we get there on a squeeze – birthday present analogy coming soon. Why? The smart money wants to wrap this up move off the March lows with a nice bow right into Friday. After that they will let the tides of September and dumb money chasing take over. The heavy lifting was done by the smart money, they can now take a vacation and collect their trophy.

6. Now I’ll say this. If my above scenario plays out. I will likely GO SHORT on Friday. That’s right. I will flip after the squeeze. The air will have inflated and then it will be let out in the face of all that new dumb money that floated the market up and gave all the smart traders and manipulators an easy, wine toasting, exit.

7. Technical patterns, swing spots, and other stuff:

PS I rolled out of my shorts and went long at the close in the $SPX, you only know this if you caught my tweet. Not that you really care to begin with, but you might pretend to care if I’m right tomorrow and the market has a whopper of an up move. If I’m wrong you will continue to ignore me as usual. That is an order.

PSS If I’m wrong tomorrow, please ridicule me in the comments below.

I’m long MTW calls; TSO, YRCW calls, and YGE puts (although YGE is set to spring higher for a day or so any day now). <<< These are some experimental trades I’m playing with.