http://www.stockrake.com

I am somewhat concerned being short for tomorrow. I actually am doing something that I learned not to do over the years, which is have a directional bias on Fed Day. They can be unpredictable and cause emotional fake out swings that will ultimately force a cover if you are short or long and then the market reverses back to your original thesis.

So what I’m looking at is, the larger trend is really turning down here, but its still early, so early equals trend up until its officially down. However, there are enough signs that I’m jumping in early.

SPX closed above my 893 level, which to me suggests one of three things.
1. We are going higher and going to hit 906 first then possibly, 910-911.
2. We will have another snapdown below 895 tomorrow that is vicious.
3. We will blow past 906 and goto 921 area.

With these scenarios, I didn’t lower my risk and remained heavily short. I’m thinking beyond tomorrow with this trade, but it still was NOT a smart move. I was too nonchalant about it.

My cue, will come from that 893 level for lower action, and above 906 that will make me rethink some of my short positions.

I bought FAZ, SRS, TZA, and SDS this morning.